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There’s always a fuzzy feeling when the Investec Champions Cup returns to the calendar, especially during the knockout stages.
There are six French teams, five English sides and five URC outfits left in the competition but I do fear for the Gallagher Premiership contingent this weekend.
Usually the five competing teams – Northampton Saints, Saracens, Harlequins, Leicester Tigers and Sale Sharks – would have a solid shot at progression. But for a variety of reasons, including opposition and circumstance, it could be a difficult weekend.
English Champions Cup favourites?
Of the five English teams Northampton Saints have the best chance at reaching the last eight; they’re the only ones who are playing at home and they’ve got a Clermont side who have been up and down in the French Top 14.
But Saints haven’t been firing in the Premiership and have struggled for consistency all year, so this suddenly becomes a huge challenge.
They’ll need to back themselves, overcome the deficit they have in forward power, and work hard to earn a winnable quarter against either Benetton or Castres at Franklin’s Gardens.
Under strength Saracens
Usually you would look at a fixture between Saracens and Toulon and instantly get excited, but the Londoners have admitted that they will not be sending a full-strength team to the south of France and that instantly saps the hype.
That’s not to say they cannot go over there and get a result on Saturday, but it certainly is difficult.
Toulon now boast a number of brilliant Brits, too, including Dan Biggar, Ben White, Lewis Ludlam and Dave Ribbans – all of whom know Saracens very well. It could get a little messy if the Londoners can’t get out of the blocks early on.
Harlequins to play ball
Harlequins have one of the most daunting Champions Cup round of 16 ties, heading to Dublin to take on Leinster at Croke Park.
If one English side left in the competition can match Leinster for attacking first phase play then it is Harlequins, but their defence has been lacking this year and an 80-minute performance has been elusive.
The Londoners have their work cut out if they are to cause one almighty upset.
Sticky wicket for Leicester Tigers
On the face of it Leicester’s Champions Cup trip to Glasgow certainly feels winnable, but the Warriors are my dark horses this weekend and I think they have the capacity to beat the odds.
Leicester are a little weird at the moment; without a head coach and with a number of key positions not yet filled ahead of next season. They need to stem the negative chat and just go out there and win, but Glasgow could prove an issue.
Champions Cup dread
Sale have one of the most daunting tasks in the Champions Cup, going to Toulouse needing a win.
They’ve proved, against Bristol Bears, that they can stunt attacking teams but Toulouse are different beasts – even without their leader, Antoine Dupont.
The No9 is the difference between Toulouse being unstoppable and nearly unbeatable, and his absence will be felt.
But Sale need to go out there and target the breakdown, and the Curry brothers Tom and Ben can put a marker down for the Lions against fellow hopeful Jack Willis.
Former England Sevens captain Ollie Phillips is the founder of Optimist Performance. Follow Ollie @OlliePhillips11