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WITH Cheltenham behind us but Aintree still to come we’re now in that in between zone where the Jumps season is still in full swing, but the Flat is just about to get going too.
This weekend, Doncaster hosts the traditional opening to the Flat season with the William Hill Lincoln Handicap (3.35pm).
As ever it looks a competitive renewal of this mile handicap on Town Moor and caution always has to be advised at this time of the season, with most horses returning from their winter breaks and maximum fitness not a given.
However, this is often a race that includes several potential handicap blots, and I have a feeling that Karl Burke’s Thunder Run could be different gear to his rivals.
This four-year-old was sent off favourite for the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day at Ascot in October and finished a good fourth on ground that had probably turned too soft for him.
He returns here off the same mark of 100, and that could seriously underestimate him granted natural improvement this year.
He does lack a recent run though, and with his price already crashing into around 5/1, I wouldn’t bite your hand off to back him at his current odds.
Instead, I’ve found a better ante-post proposition in WHIP CRACKER, who I think will go off a good deal shorter than the 20/1 currently available.
Richard Hughes looks to have teed-up this son of Cracksman for this contest with a run at Wolverhampton a few weeks ago, meaning he holds the advantage of race-fitness over many of his rivals.
It was a good effort to finish a close-up fourth on the all-weather, where he finished well from off the pace, and I like the fact he lines up here off an unchanged handicap mark.
Some of his form from last spring reads very well, including when finishing ahead of Derby runner-up Ambiente Friendly at Newmarket, and makes him look well-handicapped now his rating has slipped down to 97.
While some of his best efforts have come over further than this, he has form at this trip and if there’s rain around at Doncaster before Saturday as forecast, any that falls would only enhance his chances.
Having cost 160,000 guineas he is bred to be winning Group races and could well take this race on the way to better things.
The drop back to six furlongs could be just what the doctor ordered for IBERIAN in the Listed Cammidge Trophy (2.25pm).
After winning the Group Two Champagne Stakes at Doncaster in 2023, he only made the track twice last season, finishing well beaten in Group One company at Newmarket and Deauville.
Those runs suggested he had lost his way, but a winning return when dropped back to this trip at Southwell in December hinted that the fire still burned.
He hit the line strongly there to just get up in the shadows of the post and a strongly run race here will suit him perfectly.
That was his first run after a wind op too, so breathing issues looked to have played their part in his below-par runs last term, and there’s every chance he could now be back on the up.
Charlie Hill’s contender typically goes well fresh and will handle whatever ground he encounters at Doncaster, so there’s plenty in his favour.
In my mind there’s a good bit of value in his price of 8/1, and he should be backed each-way accordingly.
POINTERS SATURDAY
Iberian e/w 2.25pm Doncaster
Whip Cracker e/w 3.35pm Doncaster